Gambling Outsiders Week One: Lakers open season vs. Warriors

Anthony Davis in a Lakers, Warriors preseason game. Image credit: Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images

In this 2022-23 NBA season, we here at Lakers Outsiders will be providing a weekly gambling blog to our readers! Donny McHenry (@donny_mchenry) and Alex Torres (@alextorres_11) will both provide two bets each week, with each bet including our reasoning for why we like it. One bet will be related to a Lakers game, while the other one will be related to a random other NBA game going on that week.

Donny and Alex kick off the season below with bets centered around the Lakers’ opening night game vs. the Warriors that will tip-off at 7 p.m. PT before trying to find some value around the NBA in the first two calendar days of its season.

Donny’s Bets

Anthony Davis OVER 23.5 points (-115) vs. Warriors

I really wanted to take Warriors -6 here. I’m sorry. I said it. So if you’re going to attack my buddy Alex below for betting against the Lakers in our first-ever gambling post… you come for me too.

To ensure we don’t kick this thing off with TOO MUCH Lakers negativity, I will instead be focusing on this player prop for Anthony Davis. -115 is pretty good odds for a player prop, as some of these can extend into ridiculous -125 or even -135 odds sometimes where you’re really not getting much of a bang for a buck.

Putting that to the side, I’m more than willing to bet on Davis’s revenge season starting off strong tonight against the Warriors. In last season’s opener between the Lakers and Warriors, Davis scored 33 points and that was all while missing five of his seven free-throw attempts. His overall shooting has looked better in these recent preseason games than it did over most of last season, and I think Davis presents a special kind of matchup problem against the Warriors. He showed this a little over a week ago when he scored 19 points in 27 minutes against James Wiseman and the Dubs.

The Warriors didn’t have Draymond Green in that game and they may overwhelm the Lakers tonight, but even if they eventually win the game, I think AD could easily surpass the 23.5 point mark if it can stay relatively close throughout the night.

Trail Blazers vs. Kings OVER 225.5 points (-110)

For my around-the-NBA-bet, I’m going with a game on Wednesday night. Specifically, I’m focused on this matchup between the Trail Blazers and Kings. I see value in the over, as I foresee these two teams being two of the worst in the NBA when it comes to defense.

Sure, the Trail Blazers have Josh Hart and Jerami Grant this year while the Kings have added rookie Keegan Murray and still have sophomore Davion Mitchell, all players who are average-to-above-average defenders. But other than that, these teams leave a lot to be desired on that end with plenty of matchup issues across the board for both sides to take advantage of. If Mitchell guards Damian Lillard, is De’Aaron Fox guarding the flamethrowing Anfernee Simons? Jusuf Nurkic is one of the worst defensive centers in the league, how will he fare against Domantas Sabonis?

This total of 225.5 seems like it’ll only rise before Wednesday night’s game, so get it now if you want to back me.

Donny’s record on the year: 0-0-0

Alex’s Bets

Warriors -6 (-115) against the Lakers

Normally, teams on “Ring Night” won’t play well because of all of the emotions and festivities of the night in which they receive their hardware. However, the Warriors get a Lakers team who is already limping into the regular season and quite frankly… this roster still looks like a mess. Also, my Los Angeles Dodgers hurt me this past weekend, so my pessimistic take is brought you to by the pain I felt when the Dodgers could not produce any offense with runners in scoring position.

Lastly, Anthony Davis gave the Warriors all the bulletin board material they needed to focus on as he admitted that they were looking to ruin “Ring Night” for the Dubs. It’s going to take a gigantic performance from Davis and LeBron James in order to miss this bet. I think the Warriors win big in a statement game as they remind the rest of the league why they are the favorites to win it all again this year.

I can’t be the only one that’s jealous of their front office, right?

Jayson Tatum OVER 23.5 points (-125) vs. 76ers

I actually like the Sixers in this game, but I think Tatum still does his thing and scores in bunches for a 28-point night. The Boston Celtics had a tumultuous off-season, as they are bound to have an interesting start to the year without their head coach Ime Udoka on the bench.

However, Tatum is as reliable as they come. The young star looks terrible in Celtic green, but his admiration for Kobe Bryant has made him one of my favorite players. Tatum has consistently shown flashes of that same offensive dominance that the Mamba once possessed. In his first official game of the NBA season, I expect Tatum to show off his skills in front of a national audience.

Alex’s record on the year: 0-0-0

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NOTE: Gambling involves risk and neither Lakers Outsiders itself or the writers of this article are liable for any losses or damages incurred by the reader, either directly or indirectly, as a result of the use or misuse of its information and/or recommendations.

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